Bloomberg previously made a statement that the global economic recovery is threatened with a suspension due to the delayed vaccination against the coronavirus in developing countries, as well as risks that will cost the world several trillion dollars. The fact is that the USA and Great Britain now account for more than 40% of all world doses of the vaccine. However, in many countries of Central Asia, Central America, vaccination has not even begun yet, or it is progressing extremely smoothly. This means that developing countries may be left even longer in the recovery process.
Also, mutations in the virus are giving rise to new health and economic crises. The uneven distribution of vaccines could deprive the global economy of up to $9.2 trillion, according to a study commissioned by the International Chamber of Commerce.
Developed countries are forced to ship vaccines to developing countries. Experts point out that 49 per cent of the economic costs because of the ongoing pandemic will be borne by advanced economies, even if mass vaccinations are provided there.
A large-scale crisis interrupted a multi-year increase in wealth in the world, threw most countries back several years and has already cost taxpayers $12 trillion. It will be necessary to spend more on anti-crisis measures, even though incomes are shrinking: the world will miss $28 trillion in five years, the International Monetary Fund has calculated.
“The full recovery of GDP to 2019 levels will not happen until the fall of 2022,” Philip Lane from the ECB shared his forecast. “We do not think that everything will suddenly return to the way it was before COVID-19. This pandemic will have a long-term impact on consumer trust, savings, and employment. The vaccine will not help that. ”
“Even in the most optimistic plot, mass vaccinations will take a long time”, — his colleague Fabio Panetta agrees, – “It will take even longer for the population to believe that everything is over.”
“We are facing another ‘pandemic year’ in 2021,” Panetta said.
Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan, professor of Economics at the University of Maryland, concluded from her large-scale research that if developed countries are fully vaccinated by the end of this year, developing countries can vaccinate only half of their populations by the same time. It will have economic losses of about 4 trillion in U.S. dollars.
The results of Kalemli-Ozcan’s research were published as a working paper at the National Bureau of Economic Research and were presented at a recent briefing by the World Health Organization and states the economy of the entire world is one and therefore the world community must ensure the full vaccination of developing countries, as this is in the direct economic interests of developed countries.
The industries such as automotive, construction and retail trade directly depend on foreign countries for materials, spare parts and consumables, so these industries will continue to suffer. The world community can achieve prosperity if only it supports developing countries.